In November, total casino gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau is expected to fall 20% year-over-year, Credit Suisse AG said.
“Macao’s gross profit in the year to November 23 was $18.7 billion ($2.3 billion), below the average daily revenue of $850 million in October (after the Golden Week),” Hong Kong-based analysts Kenneth Fong and Isis Wong said in a note released on Tuesday.
They added: “Average daily sales last week (Nov. 17-23) increased from $750 million to $850 million in MOPs after the [Makau] Grand Prix, with the highest expected range of $850 million to $850 million. Assuming average daily sales for the rest of November are $850 million in MOPs, GGR for the month could be $24.3 billion to $24.7 billion, down 18-20% from a year earlier.”
Despite improving weekly, popular businesses were still “soft,” Fong and Wong said. Credit Suisse expected public business GGR to fall by up to 6% year-over-year for the entire November period. The bank expects VIP sales to fall by up to 28%.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has lowered its GGR forecast for next year. “We expect the GGR to decline by 2% in 2015, followed by 10% growth in 2016 and 10.5% in 2017,” Hong Kong-based analyst Philip Toulk wrote in a note released on Tuesday.
“In 2015, we expect VIP GGR to decrease by 10% (1H15: -18%, 2H15: flat) and mass/slot GGR to increase by 11%. In 2014, we expect GGR to decrease by 1%.”
Standard Chartered cut its estimate of interest, taxes and depreciation (EBITDA) for Macau operators by an average of 21% in 2015 and 26% the following year. Based on those cuts, it cut its target share price by an average of 29%.
“Street estimates seem too optimistic,” Tulk wrote.
He explained: “Given the projected growth rate of the Chinese middle class, Macau’s overall entry into China is currently low and the central government’s clear willingness to develop Macau as a general tourist destination, we continue to favor Macau as a long-term, secular growth story… but I think valuation should be more rationalised.” 바카라사이트 추천
“All eyes will be on the performance of the new trend over the Lunar New Year period, which begins in February 2015,” analysts Jamie Su and Adrian Chan at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong said in a note on Monday. “Industry participants expect casino operators to be much more aggressive in defending their business/market share if they remain sluggish for a second consecutive season (when the golden holiday in October is a first disappointment),” it added.